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Thursday, July 5, 2007




Summer is here

Last updated: July 5, 2007

June 28, 2007

Summer in the Holy Land

(by unknown Japanese Haiku master)


Summer season has arrived

Girls dress short. Militants

oil the barrels of the rocket launchers


Just the right time to examine two links posted by Amos and his commenters. Both links challenge the conventional wisdom that Merkawa tanks proved vulnerable during the war and that the IDF scored a major victory against Hezbollah long range arsenal but revealed itself as incapable of coping with short range ballistic threats. In fact, Uri Rubin claims, when it comes to countering Hezbollah ballistic threats, just the opposite is true.

1) New Life for Merkava Line? (Has Turkey Crossed the Rubicon?)

2) The Rocket Campaign against Israel during the 2006 Lebanon War. (Rocket Wars of Attrition: the Lessons from Summer 2006)



July 1, 2007

Common Sense vs Hi-Tech

Andrey said...

Do you mean to say that those 49 pages are worth reading (second link)?

For those of you who are too lazy to read Uzi Rubin's report. He says that the data available on Hezbollah missile attacks during the war and the types of rockets used shows that the IDF failed to reduce the rate of long range missile attacks. How does it square with the IDF claims that by the end of the war it would take the IDF less than a minute to detect a missile launch and destroy the launcher? He says Hezbollah treated its launchers as dispensable and in some instances crews could be seen abandoning launchers immediately after having fired their missiles. Hezbollah had stockpiled about 200 launchers and only 50% were destroyed by the end of the war, which means they could go on with this for at least another month.

What's about the short range missiles? The standard theory goes that Hezbollah's mid and long range arsenal is highly vulnerable for the preying F-16's due to the time needed to deploy and redeploy them. The short range arsenal was claimed to be a completely different story. There were reports in the media of single tube disposable launchers preset with timers that fired from inside homes and narrow alleys of villages. The IAF was in principle incapable of suppressing the short range missile fire, a fact that made the ground invasion unavoidable.

Well. If you listen to Rubin that was not the case at all. The short range weaponry of Hezbollah was not hidden in population centers but in the countryside. It consisted of batteries of at least 2 barrels, usually more, that were raised from pitfalls once a day to fire their missiles and then hidden again. There were dozens of such batteries hidden in orchards and the IAF failed to deal with them because it was unprepared, not because it was incapable of doing it. And by the way I have a post about this made shortly after the war.

So contrary to the IDF claims, the IAF did not score any major victory against Hezbollah long range arsenal and it failed to deal with the short range arsenal not because it could not do it theoretically but because ... mmm .. well ... because it failed.



July 5, 2007

Open Borders

Earlier Thursday, an Israel Defense Forces magazine reported that Israel is planning to build a sophisticated fence to prevent smuggling and infiltration across its long desert border with Egypt.

Bamahane, the army's weekly magazine for soldiers, said in its current issue that the border fence would have sensors to pick up attempts to cross. Also, it would include obstacles to stop infiltrations. The article gave no further details.

The 220-kilometer border cuts through desolate landscape at the edge of the Sinai Desert.

Source

What ? Just fence and sensors ?!?! And what about my favorite open border systems ?!?!

I am disappointed

:(

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