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Wednesday, December 20, 2006




The Battle for Power in Iraq

This post is a follow-up on the one below (The Battle for Power). It appears that the Sunni insurgents in Iraq have managed to sabotage completely the power network supplying Baghdad and both the Americans and the Iraqi government are short on plans and ideas of how to fight this economic insurgency.

This and the recent spate of suicide bombings in Afghanistan make one start wondering to which extent a modern super power, operating under restrictions of the politically correct which currently rules the West, is capable of running nation building projects of such a scale in a Muslim country, that responds to the invasion by violent insurgency and economic sabotage.

Modern occupation forces have no effective answer to the challenge of suicide attacks. On another hand the nature of modern economy provides saboteurs with many soft spots, like power grid and communication lines, by attacking which it's possible to bring an entire country to a halt. The American planners of the post-war in Iraq gave very little thought to these considerations, with a result that the US was caught completely unprepared for the challenges it is now facing in Iraq and Afghanistan.

it is well known that Paul Brenner modeled the American occupation of Iraq after the similar American experience in Germany. People, who criticize such Brenner's decisions as his de-Baathification campaign or the decision to completely disband the Iraqi Army, simply don't understand that these decisions were inspired by the success of the similar measures taken by the Yankees in Germany after the WW2.

The American occupations and post-wars, in both Iraq and Afghanistan, might be badly planned, but this does not exclude the possibility that the world has changed. The explosives and weapons now at disposal of any insurgency worth its name, as well as such a killer weapon as suicide bombers, may have tipped the balance at this stage of human history in favor of forces of destruction and sabotage. The Yankees should try to plan their post-wars better, but they also should take into account the possibility that the world has indeed changed and there is not so much the US or anybody else can do about this.

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