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Friday, September 8, 2006




Sunni & Shia

Diana said:

Back to Nobody:This war has really brought out to be the fact that Sunni and Shia Muslims are really really different and really hate each other. That's a good thing. Israel should exploit that.
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My understanding is that its not in our interests to have the Arabs sinking all the time into the insanity of their paranoias and conspiracy theories, be they in the form of the protocols of the elders of Zion, chomskism or the traditional Sunni Shia shit.

Our wars with the Arabs will stop the day around our borders would appear secular moderately developed countries. I don't expect the Arabs to create here replicas or Sweden/Swiss but even 10000-12000 $ of GDP per head would do. Unless this happens nothing of long term value can be achieved here. And probably for this reason we should think that to this day we have achieved nothing of real substance.

Our peace with Egypt is a peace with its political elite which is presiding over the madness of the arab street which on the first occasion would replace Mubarak's regime with one of the Muslims Brothers, the same way it happened with the Palestinians. During the last election we could see what happens when Mubarak relaxes the pressure on the brothers. Mubarak's regime is gone, Camp David is over. Its as simple as that.

Tactically i don't see what we can get from this Sunni Shia thing. Its close to impossible for us to manipulate it in our interests and strategically it has just ruined the American experiment in Iraq.

The funds allocated for reconstruction of Iraq make pale in comparison the post war american occupations of Germany/Japan. Coupled with Iraq's oil fields they were supposed to produce the biggest economic miracle in history.

Democratic Iraq would have probably meant the end of Asad and other dictators. The Lebanese Shiites might have reconsidered their options watching the prosperous and democratic Shiites in Iraq. And even the Palestinians could have started having second thoughts about the wisdom of voting for the fundamentalists.

What we got instead is an unmitigated disaster and this disaster is 99% a result of the Sunni Shia conflict.

The Israeli Arab conflict is not a war to be finished thru the decisive final victory. It would come to the end when the Arabs around us would become modern. Until then our wars would continue and all our peace agreements would be in danger of being overruled or canceled. That's why i don't think we should be in a rash to strike a peace deal with Syria for example. Lets first see that it can survive the first real attempt at modernization, that we don't get here another Iraq.

I don't think that what we have seen in Iraq leaves any doubt as to what our real interests should be in this respect. This religious rivalry between the two does nt make one enthusiastic about endless possibilities of exploiting it. It simply makes one despair from the Arabs. No israeli of course wants to see the united Sunni Shia front against his country but one is expecting the Arabs to get some brains at the beginning of the 21 century. They are supposed to be able to overcome this nonsense before they would be able to create normal countries. Its impossible to get the Arabs modernizing if they continue with the Sunni Shia bullshit.

Fortunately, apart from Lebanon, there is nowhere sizable Shiite minorities in the countries around us. That means that when these countries enter the stage of modernization and democratization they would not be torn apart by Sunni Shia conflicts like it happened in Iraq. But the fact that in the 21 century the Arabs are still stuck in this shit makes one very skeptical about their ability to produce anything decent in terms of nation building and reinventing themselves.

I know that what i am saying contradicts of sorts the immediate logic but there is actually very little to exploit here in my view. We have got nothing worth of time and effort to be fishing for in the muddy waters of the Sunni Shia conflict. We should better to leave it to the Arabs in an apparently vain hope that at some point they would be able to sort this mess out by themselves. But if Hezbollah's 'victories' is the only way they can bridge the Sunni Shia divide then its bad for them and too bad for us.

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