The Fourth Way
For decades Israel's options in dealing with its Arab neighbors were two:
1) to do peace, a negotiated peace - land for peace (if you trust the Arabs)
2) to do nothing - land without peace (if you don't trust them)
Barak and Sharon have found the third way: unilateral, unnegotiated withdrawals - no land, no peace.
The last war has destroyed completely the idea of convergence, big or small. Now it appears that almost immediately Olmert and Livni have discovered the fourth way - the UN way.
Now it appears that some Muslim states, for example Bangladesh and Indonesia, may take part in the UNIFIL force. These countries are traditionally hostile to Israel and refuse to have diplomatic relationships with the Zionist entity. The participation of these countries makes one to start pondering a simple question - what it's good for? Was Hezbollah asking for reinforcements lately? Because until now the understanding was that its Syria/Iran's function.
The fact that Olmert and Livni didn't even raise any objection makes me wonder - where is their trust and confidence in the goodwill of the UN coming from. There is nothing particularly godly about this organization dominated by a few dozens of Muslim states, blackmailing the rest with their oil resources.
To aggravate the situation the Italian FM is saying that if the UNIFIL mission would be successful, the UN may want to try this trick in Gaza.
The UNIFIL mission can not fail in Lebanon obviously for two reasons:
1) They are going to do nothing since they are not coming to Lebanon to disarm Hezbollah.
2) Hezbollah would avoid staging cross border raids for years now. Nasrallah recently admitted that had he known that there is even a 1% chance for such a war he would not have kidnapped the soldiers. This means indirectly that the Hezbollah's low scale warfare at the border is over now since nobody can claim today that he does nt know about this 1% chance.
So the border would be peaceful for the time being and the UNIFIL would claim this to its credit. Probably the only achievement of the IDF in the last war (apart from destroying the economy of another country) would be appropriated now by these clowns. And then the Israeli politicians are wondering why they are always losing the propaganda war!!
And then the UN would start pushing Israel to let it into Gaza. And they would go there of course among other missions to stop the kassam attacks and tunnel digging but for some reason my intuition is that they would be as effective in this as they have been in anything else until now.
And another intuition is that every second time IAF planes would try to hit kassam or katyusha launchers, miraculously they would be getting UNIFIL troops instead. God knows why I am so pessimistic when it comes to the UN.
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