The Happy Arab News Service




Wednesday, August 30, 2006




Sinking the First Arab Spring

While in our previous confrontations with Hezbollah the method of targeting infrastructure paid off well and quickly, it was clearly misfunctioning this time. --> Full Post By the end of the third day of the war any reasonable person, except the IDF generals and the cabinet, could notice that there is nobody in Lebanon these days both interested and able of restraining Hezbollah. When one sees Sanyora weeping for god knows what time on tv, one can easily get the idea of what sort of government the lebanese got there.

If Hezbollah agreed to the ceasefire on these terms and since then was sticking to it despite the fact that on several occasions the IDF soldiers shot dead Hezbollah's men or carried out raids deep inside Lebanon, its probably because they indeed could nt go on with this war any longer. But its hard to believe that they got this perception because of the lebanese government or infrastructure.

It might happen because they lost too many of their best fighters and started running out of rockets. But not in the sense that they are casualty averse as israelis, but rather because they still needed forces for next confrontations with us or for possible troubles with other lebanese factions. Nobody can allow oneself to lose most of one's fighting capability, even if this consists by 100% of kamikadzes. If only for tactical reasons.

But its a very big question if they might have been so close to this, since the IDF was reporting that the Hezbollah's best forces were positioned around Litani, the area the IDF reached only in the last days of the war.

If anything, it was probably due to the huge destruction in the shiite areas, when Hezbollah started seeing its mini Iran quickly disappearing in the thin air with its people being expelled to the christian and sunni areas. And this raises another question - what actually is infrastructure? Because for Hezbollah infrastructure is probably less about bridges in Beirut and elsewhere and more about homes and small shops of its rural shiite constituencies in the south.

This means that Hezbollah indeed has infrastructure. Its not some kind of virtual reality as Al Kaida. By tunneling under houses of Bint Jbel and other places Hezbollah actively encouraged the IDF to hit them at the spot where it hurts most for them, because its the well being of its shiites, and its ability to create and protect it, that is the razon d'etre of Hezbollah in the eyes of the shiites.
By its insistance on urban warfare, Hezbollah lured the IDF into doing just that by its own hands.

But whatever were the Hezbollah's reasons, its very possible that we have just finished destroying the only country in the region with the potential of becoming a modern western style society in the foreseeable future. This is not in the sense that we bombed into pile of rubbish the more advanced areas of the christians and sunnies, but in the sense that we hit hard the transportation infrastructure and scared off investors and tourists for the next decade.

In case the lebanese economy would collapse and with it a political crisis or civil strife would follow, this would mean that we have also accomplished a feat, and of a very dubious value, of sinking by our own hands the first arab spring and with it our best chances to get some normality among our neighbors.

Its the christians and sunnies who would pack their stuff and go elsewhere, if anything like this happens. Its us who may end up being stuck here with a huge sadr city of shiite fanatics led by these lunatics Nasrallah and Kassam.

It may be not in the interests of Israel to be looking for another round with Hezbollah, as some people seem to be suggesting recently. Because Lebanon may not survive another visit by the IDF. Making Lebanon a failed state equals to giving it back to Syria. And in general i would say that sinking the first arab spring is not a good way to be remembered in history.

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