A lebanese friend asked me to post on his blog about aoun and hezbollah
My guess is that aoun is a strong individual who can not accept playing secondary roles. He wants to be a leader. Splitting with march 14 movement and setting up his own party was the only way for him to become a leader in his own right. This is my guess of course, the lebanese should know better.
But the price that lebanon may be made to pay for Aoun's flirting with nasrallah may happen to be enormous. --> Full PostIsrael is an external force in relation to lebanon. It comes and goes. Hezbollah remains and its arms and its very present structure is a much more serious problem for lebanon than israel itself.
While hezbollah is repeatedly called a state within a state, this definition clearly obscures seeing what hezbollah really is - Hezbollah is not just a state within a state. The south of lebanon is their state. The state in the south is them.
I would say that what is regularly overlooked when discussing hezbollah problem is its totalitarian streak. The illusion that just disarming hezbollah would do the trick or that hezbollah can be talked up to do something constructive stems from this miscomprehension about hezbollah true nature.
I think many lebanese dont understand what is hezbollah.
Hezbollah is not a political party.
Hezbollah is not a sectarian ethnic movement.
Hezbollah is ideology.
Its ideology with the most uncunning ability to merge political, social and military into one big monolithic bloque at the practical level. Hezbollah is a system with a potential to become a totalitarian entity.
The lebanese see it as one of their many parties and movements. But its not one of them. Its a thing of a different nature.
it may be true that many other lebanese sects are running social services and practiced having their own militias. But its not enough. You need an ideology to make it into potential for something much worse than ethnic sectarian movement.
You need ideology... not just ideology ... a total ideology ... And Hezbollah got it.
it is when you have a worldview , an ideology , into which you can integrate political social military and other aspects of the society that this totalitarian shit becomes possible.
An ideology without this integrating ability is a political party. Without ideology this integrating ability is a sectarian movement.
But i would be dead if what i see now is not the same movie i spent 20 years of my life living in. Its not fully developed yet. Its just starting. But i can smell it - this is it.
its just a question of time. Of how many people would grow up in their schools. For how many people their social services would be their father and mother.
Totalitarianism is an ideology which permeats social fabric and hezbollah is it.
its just starting. It can transform itself it easily into something less dangerous. If for example this wave of fundamentalism would exhaust itself, hezbollah may lose its teeth.
But under current conditions it can quickly become something noone would recognize in the end. Its worse than iran. Iran is rotten from within but hezbollah is apparently not corrupt. Their ideological drive is still fresh. They are fresh as if they started just yesterday and its not a good sign.
Its still not that bad. But it may become very bad.
It depends greatly on the situation in the world and the arab/muslim world.
But whatever the case there is a potential here for the situation in which aoun would enter history books as a local lebanese version of chamberlain.
i would say that there is already a momentum developing inside this system called hezbollah that would make it explode in the face of the lebanese very soon. The ideology of hezbollah coupled with their deep involvement in education on the territories under its control is already laying foundations for next generations of young shiites who would be breathing hezbollah as their life-force.
The momentum has been already created and its my intuition that the whole system would be progressively radicalizing itself in the coming years. Hezbollah got a human face in nasrallah who is joking and talking like one of the people but people who may rise to prominence inside hezbollah later or eventually replace nasrallah may happen to be much worse.
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